A new analysis by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) indicates that proposed changes to the United States’ Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) — requiring broader disclosure of travellers’ social media histories — could significantly weaken inbound travel demand, with direct implications for the hotel sector and wider tourism economy.
The research warns that if the measures go ahead, international visitor arrivals and spend could fall sharply, affecting hotel occupancy, revenue per available room (RevPAR) and related employment in tourism-dependent economies.
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Proposed social media disclosure rules and traveller sentiment
The policy under consideration by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would expand the amount of personal data collected from visitors from ESTA-eligible countries — including social media identifiers used over the past five years alongside other contact details.
Survey data commissioned by WTTC, covering more than 4,500 frequent travellers from nations such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Australia, shows awareness of the changes is already high. About two-thirds of respondents reported familiarity with the proposals.
Around one-third (34%) of those surveyed said they would be “somewhat or much less likely” to visit the United States in the next two to three years if the new social media disclosure requirements were introduced, with only 12% saying they would be more likely to travel.
Respondents also cited perceptions that the US would feel less welcoming for both international leisure travel and business tourism, a factor that could influence hotel bookings in key gateway cities.
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By GlobalDataEstimated impact on hotel demand and visitor spend
WTTC combined the traveller sentiment data with economic modelling to assess potential impacts on international arrivals, tourism spending and employment.
Under a high-impact scenario, the analysis suggests the US could receive about 4.7 million fewer visitors from ESTA countries in 2026 — a nearly 24% decline compared with a business-as-usual forecast.
This reduction in arrivals is projected to result in up to USD 15.7 billion in lost visitor spending, with broader effects on the wider travel and tourism GDP estimated at USD 21.5 billion.
For the hotel sector, fewer international travellers typically translates into lower room nights and reduced demand for ancillary services such as food and beverage, meetings and events.
The modelling also highlights risks to jobs directly and indirectly tied to tourism, with up to 157,000 US jobs at risk — a figure roughly equivalent to three months of job creation in the country’s tourism economy.
Competitive position of the US in global tourism
Industry groups point out that the proposed social media requirements are viewed as more intrusive than entry procedures in competing destinations such as Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and much of Western Europe.
As a result, the United States could face growing competition from alternative tourism markets that are actively seeking to attract international visitors with fewer administrative barriers.
For global hotel operators and international travel planners, changes that reduce US inbound demand could shift distribution of international room nights toward other regions.
Market observers suggest that destinations with more accessible entry processes may capture market share from travellers deterred by complex or privacy-sensitive entry requirements, influencing hotel revenue trends and international travel patterns in 2026 and beyond.
While border security remains the stated priority of US policymakers, WTTC has urged reassessment of the proposed changes to avoid unintended negative effects on tourism, the hotel sector and broader economic activity.
