A government shutdown that began on 1 October 2025 is still in effect today, and is increasingly disrupting thanksgiving travel across the United States.
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket point to the stalemate stretching well into late November or even December, raising the risk of continued flight delays, cancellations and missed connections that ripple into hotel bookings.
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The aviation system is straining under unpaid staffing, with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warning he would shut U.S. airspace if safety is compromised.
Reuters and Bloomberg report widespread delays tied to air traffic control absences and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) pressures, with major hubs among those affected.
At Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport, security queues reached about three hours this week, before easing on Tuesday morning.
Hotel demand and booking patterns under pressure
Trade bodies say the financial toll on travel is mounting. The US Travel Association estimates the shutdown is costing roughly $1 billion a week in lost tourism spending, with cumulative losses now several billions of dollars.
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By GlobalDataHotel groups and wider travel industry coalitions have urged Congress to pass a “clean” funding bill before thanksgiving to avert further disruption to guest arrivals, group business and last-minute stays.
Hotel-specific impacts are emerging. The American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) estimates about $650 million in lost hotel business so far, citing cancellations and weaker consumer confidence heading into the peak holiday period.
Analysts warn that persistent airport delays typically translate into late check-ins, no-shows and compressed booking windows, especially around gateway airports and resort markets dependent on domestic airlift.
Traveller behaviour signals a softer holiday shoulder for hotels
Surveys and booking data point to nervous travellers. Reporting from national outlets highlights that many Americans are reconsidering thanksgiving travel plans amid the shutdown, a pattern that historically dampens short-lead hotel demand.
Industry letters to Congress, signed by hundreds of travel companies and major hotel operators, warn of “chaos” if the shutdown runs into the holiday week.
For hotel revenue teams, that implies lumpier pickup, higher same-day demand from stranded passengers, and potential ADR volatility near airports.
For properties planning operations, the most frequent aviation advice now circulating—fly early and avoid layovers—matters for staffing rosters and guest communications.
Early-morning operations may see more on-time arrivals; later banks could bring spikes of distressed travellers needing walk-in rates and flexible checkout.
Front desks near hubs should prepare for irregular operations with clear policies on late arrivals and no-show fees, while city and resort hotels may need nimble cancellation rules to protect reputation and long-term demand.
What hotel operators should watch as thanksgiving travel approaches
• Monitor airport conditions by market: Track TSA wait times and FAA advisories for feeder airports to anticipate late night check-ins and overnights from misconnects. Houston’s recent swings—from three-hour lines to normal waits within a day—show volatility that can whipsaw local demand.
• Prepare distressed-traveller playbooks: Coordinate with nearby airlines on waiver policies; set transparent walk-in pricing and amenity basics for disrupted guests; ready housekeeping for after-hours room turns during irregular operations days.
• Flex inventory and policies: Consider limited, time-bound flexibility on cancellation and late checkout when large delay waves hit, while preserving rate integrity for peak nights.
• Review group and event risk: Engage organisers on travel-day buffers and hybrid options; confirm attrition clauses where attendance depends on airlift health.
• Communicate clearly: Update pre-arrival emails with transport guidance and contingency tips; remind guests of direct-to-hotel transit alternatives if flights are rebooked.
The outlook for thanksgiving remains uncertain. With the shutdown now in its fifth week and prediction markets signalling a prolonged impasse, hotels should expect continued variability in arrivals, same-day demand near airports, and booking hesitation in leisure and corporate segments until federal funding is restored.
